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The Stimulus Checks Could Be Back, as Two Proposals Emerge as Possible in 2025

While the DOGE dividends never took off, Trump and a Republican Senator start to talk about new stimulus checks rounds

by Carlos Loria
31/07/2025 06:00
in Finance
New stimulus checks could come to millions of Americas, if they get green-lit in Washington

New stimulus checks could come to millions of Americas, if they get green-lit in Washington

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Republican Senator Josh Hawley formally introduced a bill on Monday to distribute refund stimulus checks derived from tariff revenue. The initiative, dubbed the “Tariff Return to Workers Act,” establishes minimum payments of $600 per adult and dependent child.

Hawley justified his proposal as a direct response to recent statements by President Donald Trump, who expressed interest in tariff-related refunds. “As President Trump proposed, my legislation would allow hardworking Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump’s tariffs are returning to this country,” the senator detailed in an statement.

How would the new stimulus checks program work?

The proposed mechanism would replicate aspects of the pandemic stimulus checks: it would be structured as a refundable tax credit, with early payments via check this year if approved. The guaranteed base amount would be $600, although it would allow for larger refunds if tariff revenue exceeds projections.

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It includes phase-out provisions: it would decrease by 5% for joint taxpayers with adjusted gross income over $150,000, heads of household over $112,500, and individuals exceeding $75,000.

How viable is a new round of stimulus checks?

Treasury Department data supports the debate: tariffs totaled approximately $27 billion in June alone, showing a monthly increase of $4 billion. However, analyses by the Tax Foundation project mixed economic effects: while tariffs would raise $2.5 trillion over a decade, they would also increase costs for average households by $1,300 this year.

Hawley seeks to capitalize on his previous experience with stimulus, recalling his 2020 alliance with Senator Bernie Sanders. However, the legislative path looks complex. House Speaker Mike Johnson already expressed skepticism toward similar mechanisms this year, after dismissing the “DOGE dividend” proposal.

That plan, initially backed by Trump, promised to redistribute savings from the Department of Government Efficiency, but fell short of the $2 trillion projections promoted by Elon Musk, who later left the administration.

President Trump says stimulus checks could return

Meanwhile, President Trump reiterated his interest in tariff refunds without specifying amounts or eligibility criteria. In recent statements, he mentioned his preference for a “small refund for people at a certain income level.”

The Treasury reported tariff revenue of $100 billion in the first half of 2025, with estimates of $300 billion annually, creating a theoretical basis for such payments.

It’s worth noting that any initiative requires congressional approval, although the president holds a solid majority there. Currently, there are no active bills for direct reimbursements, except for Hawley’s proposal.

Trump had previously explored alternatives such as allocating up to 20% of DOGE savings to citizen checks (estimated at $5,000 per household), but this scheme lost momentum after Musk left the government. Hawley also included in his bill that refunds should be issued as early as the second half of 2025.

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