The official data of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) corresponding to the 2026 filing cycle show that the average refund reached $3,462 as of April 3, a figure that represents an 11.1% increase compared to the $3,116 recorded at the same time in 2025. The accumulated amount of issued refunds it reached approximately $241.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 14.5%.
The 2026 season is the first to incorporate the tax modifications established by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025. The regulations expanded the catalog of available deductions to include tips, overtime, car loan interest, and an additional benefit for older adults, while raising the ceiling applicable to the federal deduction for state and local taxes (SALT).
According to the IRS, more than 53 million taxpayers they incorporated at least one of those new categories into their forms.
Early Filing Behavior: These People Get Their Refunds Faster
“Aggregate refunds have increased, average refunds have also increased, and clearly millions, if not tens of millions, of taxpayers are claiming one of the new deductions,” said Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. The early filing concentrated those who received tips or overtime pay.
Taxpayers with tip income in overtime exhibited different behavior compared to the rest of the population. A survey of the Bipartisan Policy Center determined that 81% of that group completed their tax return during January or February, an advance that analysts attribute to the expectation of larger refunds resulting from the new tax deductions.
Of course, those who filed earlier are entitled to get their tax refunds sooner than others that took more time to file theirs.
Tax Refunds Increased Below Projections
However, the actual increase was less than projected by most analysts. While estimates circulated placing the gain between $600 and $700, the average increase observed was around $346.
According to data from Axios, the uneven impact is due to the fact that the deductions do not operate uniformly: the benefit varies depending on the taxpayer’s income, their filing status, and compliance with eligibility criteria. Taxpayers who did not qualify for the new categories saw minimal changes in their returns.
The weekly average also showed a downward trend. The average refund stood at $3,676 on March 6, fell to $3,571 on March 20, and contracted to $3,521 on March 27 before stabilizing at the value reported on April 3. IRS data warns that the final season average could experience additional adjustments as late filers complete their process.
The Size of the Refund Is Not a Reduction in the Tax Burden
One relevant technical point that the IRS data does not directly reflect is the distinction between a high refund and a reduced tax burden. When the increased refund is due to higher withholding during the year—and not to a lower tax liability—the practical result is equivalent to an interest-free loan granted by the taxpayer to the federal government over twelve months, instead of having that money available in each payment period.
The volume of returns filed also showed variations compared to previous cycles, with early filing influencing the average composition during the first few months of the season. The IRS will continue to publish periodic updates until the filing period closes.
