2026 COLA prediction update for Social Security & SSI payments in the U.S.

By January 22, 2025, all Social Security and SSI recipients will have benefited from the 2025 COLA increase. However, it is time to start preparing for the Cost-of-Living Adjustment in 2026. The most reliable experts to calculate this annual boost are working for the Senior Citizens League. Year after year, they make the most accurate projections.

According to the Senior Citizens League’s Cost-of-Living Adjustment model, the 2026 COLA increase will be about 2.1%. Bear in mind that TSCL’s model is based on the information provided by the Bureau of Labour and Statistics. The key information to work out the Cost-of-Living Adjustment is the CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers ).

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Is the Social Security 2026 COLA prediction lower than in 2025?

For your information, the 2025 COLA increase was 2.5%. Therefore, if inflation continues cooling down there could be a lower-than-average Cost-of-Living Adjustment in 2026.

That means the current prediction the Senior Citizens League has made for 2026 is 0.4% lower than in 2025. Bear in mind that the CPI-W for December 2024 was 2.8%.

If you are a new Social Security recipient, you may not know that the highest COLA in recent years was back in 2023. It reached a staggering 8.7% so millions of American retirees took advantage of a large increase.

When will Social Security confirm the 2026 COLA increase?

The Social Security Administration (SSA) usually releases the new Cost-of-Living Adjustment increase in October. However, it depends on the year, it may be in mid-October or a little earlier.

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its annual schedule on its website. This schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index confirms that the CPI-W for September will be unveiled on October 15, 2025. So, Oct. 15 will be when SSA releases the new COLA for 2026 too.

Take into account that Social Security uses the CPI-W figure from the third quarters in the current and previous year. By comparing both percentage, SSA can work out the 2026 COLA increase.