With just over two weeks left until the tax filing deadline in the United States, the first Internal Revenue Service (IRS) figures are already generating buzz. The tax agency reported on Friday that, as of March 27, the average refund for individual taxpayers reached $3,521. That’s about $350 more than the $3,170 for the same period last year.
Behind this increase, which represents approximately 11%, lies a mix of technical adjustments and political decisions that are already stirring debate ahead of the midterm elections in November. So far, the IRS has received about 88.4 million individual tax returns, out of an estimated 164 million expected before the April 15 deadline.
That tax refund in your bank account might be bigger
The data is no coincidence. Treasury sources and public statements from the White House point directly to the tax changes implemented last year by President Donald Trump. “The One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” (OBBBA) as it has been called by the administration’s political wing, included tax cuts in 2025.
But the problem, according to accountants and analysts, is that the IRS did not update the withholding tables in time. The result? Millions of W-2 workers—that is, employees whose paychecks are deducted monthly—ended up paying more than they should have for the remainder of 2025. Now, with their tax returns, they are getting that overpayment back.
“Normally, you can expect a tax refund when you overpay,” explains the National Association of Tax Professionals. “Alternatively, you may have a balance due if you didn’t pay enough.” In this case, the balance tipped toward a refund.
A tax policy that quietly boosted refunds this spring
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the figures a few days ago in an interview with “Fox & Friends.” According to Bessent, nearly 50% of tax returns filed in 2026 already include some of Trump’s “signature campaign policies,” such as deductions for tips, overtime pay, and car loan interest.
Regarding the overtime deduction, Bessent was emphatic: it has been a “home run.” He said it already appears on 25% of the returns received, representing nearly 20 million applications as of March 20.
However, the White House’s promises are running up against the reality of the numbers. In a statement on January 26, the administration asserted that the average taxpayer could receive an additional $1,000 or more, citing October data from the investment bank Piper Sandler. But IRS data so far shows an average increase of $350, not $1,000.
A tax expert reflects on tax refunds
Tom O’Saben, director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals, put the increase into perspective during a press conference last week. “We are seeing an increase in refunds,” he said. And then he delivered a line that sums up the unequal nature of this tax season: “I don’t know if it’s substantial, but one person’s substantial gain is another person’s misery.”
The Republican Party is already using the higher refunds as a campaign argument, especially given that many Americans are still struggling with inflation and the rising cost of living. Democrats, on the other hand, point out that this is merely a technical correction due to outdated withholding tax tables, not genuine structural tax relief.
