The 2026 tax season kicked off with a promise the Trump administration was quick to put in writing: IRS refunds would be the highest in history. Four months after the White House projected increases of “a thousand dollars or more” per taxpayer, the real numbers are in, and the picture is more intricate than the official rhetoric suggested.
As of March 6, the average tax refund recorded by the IRS was $3,676. A year earlier, during the same period, that figure was $3,324. The 10.6% increase is real, concrete, and verifiable. But it’s not the four-digit jump the administration had promised in January.
What the IRS promised and what the numbers actually show
The origin of this gap lies in policy itself. The legislation known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025, introduced a series of new deductions that took effect for the 2025 tax year: no tip tax, no overtime tax, no interest tax on loans for American-made cars, and a special deduction for senior citizens.
These deductions are channeled through a new form, Schedule 1-A. The problem, as noted by economists of various persuasions, is that the IRS did not adjust the payroll withholding tables when the law was passed. This means that millions of workers continued to pay taxes on their paychecks as if the law didn’t exist, accumulating a surplus that they are now recovering as a refund.
What the IRS chief told Congress
Frank Bisignano, IRS CEO and Social Security Commissioner, appeared before the House Ways and Means Committee on March 4. He presented lawmakers with a figure the government touted as evidence of the reform’s success: among those who had already filed Schedule 1-A, the average refund was $775 higher than last year. “The refunds for those filers were $775 higher than the typical refund last year,” Bisignano said. As of March 4, 43% of returns filed already included that form.
But not all experts are reading those numbers with the same enthusiasm. Tom O’Saben, director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals, put it more simply in an interview with CNBC: “What I’m finding is that the changes are making a difference of hundreds of dollars, not thousands of dollars.” He added, “I really wouldn’t say that refunds are dramatically higher than in previous years.”
Democrat Richard Neal, a Massachusetts representative and ranking member of the Ways and Means Committee, was more direct in his political assessment: this season’s increases have been “far less than promised” for the average American.
What comes next before the April 15 deadline
The pace of issuance, however, is another matter. Bisignano reported that direct deposit refunds are arriving on average nine days after the return is filed, compared to the previous standard of 21 days. As of March 6, the IRS had already issued $160.8 billion in refunds, compared to $145.1 billion at the same point in 2025. In total, 43.75 million taxpayers had already received their money, and 72% of all returns filed had resulted in a refund.
There’s a logistical change that can’t be overlooked: the IRS is eliminating paper checks. The agency is transitioning to an exclusively digital payment system, following an executive order that modernizes federal government payments. Those without bank accounts have access to prepaid cards as an alternative.
The final deadline for filing tax returns is April 15, 2026. Those who need more time can request an extension until October 15, although any taxes owed must be paid by the original due date. The “Where’s My Refund?” tool on IRS.gov and the IRS2Go app allow you to track the status of your refund in real time, with information generally available within 24 hours of filing electronically.
The season isn’t over yet. More than 140 million individual tax returns are expected for tax year 2025, meaning the majority are still to come. If current patterns hold, the final average could drop as more taxpayers in less favorable tax situations file their returns. Or it could rise. That uncertainty, more than any preliminary figures, is what defines this tax season.
