Millions of Americans opened their bank accounts this week and found a significantly larger deposit than last year. This is no mistake. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) confirmed that the average federal tax refund this season is approaching $3,800, a figure that is particularly noteworthy at a time when gas prices continue to rise and the cost of living continues to strain family budgets.
The IRS data shows that the average refund for individual filers reached $3,804 in mid-February, representing an increase of about 10% compared to the same period last year. That figure dropped slightly to $3,742 in the February 27 report, but the year-over-year increase remains above 10.6%. The government has already processed more than 36 million returns this season, totaling more than $136 billion.
Why the IRS Is Sending Bigger Checks This Year
Behind this increase lies a specific legislative reason. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law by President Donald Trump in July 2025, introduced a series of tax changes that began to be felt this tax season.
Among the most significant are new deductions for overtime and tips, an expanded standard deduction of up to $31,500 for married couples, and a much more generous limit for the state and local income tax deduction known as SALT.
Tom O’Saben, director of tax content at the National Association of Tax Professionals, was cautious in assessing the true scope of these measures: “What I’m finding is that the changes are providing hundreds of dollars of difference, not thousands of dollars.” An important caveat for those expecting a dramatic jump in their paycheck.
An analysis by Oxford Economics, published in late February, projects that refunds could grow by almost 20% throughout the tax season, with the benefits particularly concentrated among middle- and upper-income households. The Tax Foundation, an independent think tank, estimated that the impact per taxpayer could be between $300 and $1,000 more than in previous years.
Tax Credits Could Delay Your Refund: Here’s What to Do
A technical detail explains the statistical jump in mid-February: By law, the IRS cannot issue refunds that include the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit before February 15.
When those payments begin to be processed, the overall average skyrockets. Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, explained it clearly: “As we move into the second half of February, the average refund size goes up, it gets bigger.”
The vast majority of Americans choose the standard deduction over itemizing expenses. But tax advisors point out that this season there’s a compelling reason to reconsider that choice, particularly for homeowners who purchased in recent years.
Mortgage rates averaged around 6.69% over the past two years, according to Freddie Mac data, and the interest burden is heavier in the early years of a mortgage. Adding that mortgage interest deduction to the expanded SALT deduction could, in some cases, outweigh the benefit of the standard deduction.
The overall pace of the season, however, is somewhat lagging. The IRS received just over 32 million returns in the first few weeks and issued nearly 13 million refunds, slightly below last year’s pace. Processing is also slower than in 2025. The agency expects to receive about 164 million individual returns before the April 15 deadline.
For those who filed electronically, the refund typically arrives within 21 calendar days of receipt. Those who opted for a paper return should expect at least an additional week. The IRS has enabled the Where’s My Refund tool so that any taxpayer can track the status of their refund in real time.
