Millions of American taxpayers are turning their attention to a tax filing season poised to be unlike any in recent memory. A combination of drastic legislative changes, a fundamental transformation in how refunds are delivered, and new deductions could put significantly more money back in the pockets of millions.
According to tax policy experts, the average tax refund could see a huge, like, real HUGE boost, but navigating the new landscape requires preparation and awareness of critical deadlines and digital requirements.
The IRS Just Changed the Tax Refund Policies
The driving force behind this year’s expected refund surge is the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Passed in 2025, the law introduced several retroactive tax cuts that were not reflected in that year’s payroll withholding tables.
Because of this, workers continued to have more taxes withheld from each paycheck than the new law required. The result, experts explain, is that instead of seeing slightly higher take-home pay throughout 2025, taxpayers will receive the collective benefit as a lump sum when they file.
The Tax Foundation estimates the total individual tax cut for 2025 at $144 billion, with private-sector analysis suggesting up to $100 billion of that could flow back to taxpayers as larger refunds this season, potentially raising the average refund by several hundred dollars.
A New $6,000 Deduction for Certain Taxpayers
The OBBBA ushers in numerous targeted deductions designed to benefit specific groups:
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Seniors: A new $6,000 deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older.
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Workers: New deductions for qualified tip income (up to $25,000) and overtime income (up to $12,500 for single filers).
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Homeowners and Families: An increase in the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap to $40,000 for many, and an increased Child Tax Credit.
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Car Owners: A new deduction for auto loan interest, capped at $10,000.
Wait to File Your Taxes? This Year, It Could Cost You
The IRS is actively encouraging taxpayers to use the weeks before the official filing season begins to get organized. This starts with gathering all necessary documents, including Forms W-2 from employers, various 1099 forms for interest, dividends, or freelance income, and records of digital asset transactions. A crucial new step for many will be ensuring they have secure banking information on hand.
As of September 30, 2025, the IRS began phasing out paper refund checks for individual taxpayers in favor of direct deposit. During the 2025 season, 93% of refunds were already issued electronically, but this shift is now mandatory. The IRS advises taxpayers without a bank account to explore opening a low-cost option or using a prepaid debit card that supports direct deposit to avoid lengthy delays.
The TurboTax Panorama for 2026
For those using TurboTax, it’s good to know what qualifies as a “simple return” in order to access free filing options. It’s not available for everyone in the tax system.
The TurboTax Free Edition is available to an estimated 37% of taxpayers whose situation involves only W-2 income, the standard deduction, the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit, student loan interest, or the new Schedule 1-A deductions for tips, overtime, car loan interest, and seniors.
More complex situations, such as those involving itemized deductions, freelance income (1099-NEC), stock sales, or rental property income, will require a paid tier.
The company is also promoting its Expert Full Service, where a tax professional prepares and files the return, starting at $150 for new users if filed by February 28, 2026. All TurboTax products come with a suite of guarantees, including promises of maximum refund, 100% accurate calculations, and basic audit support.
The April 15 Deadline is a Trap for Unprepared Taxpayers
While the IRS has not yet announced the official start date for accepting 2026 returns, it typically begins in late January; the 2025 season opened on January 27. The absolute deadline to file a 2025 return or request an extension is Wednesday, April 15, 2026.
For those who file electronically and choose direct deposit, the IRS still advises that most refunds are issued in less than three weeks, though some may take longer. The status of any refund can be tracked through the “Where’s My Refund?” tool on IRS.gov, which requires a Social Security number, filing status, and the exact refund amount.
