The Social Security Administration (SSA) uses an annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) to preserve the purchasing power of benefits for programs like Social Security, SSDI disability, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI). This adjustment is directly tied to inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
The calculation specifically uses the average CPI-W from the third quarter (July, August, September) of the current year and compares it to the average from the same period in the prior year. The resulting percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth, becomes the following year’s COLA.
Have into consideration that if inflation is flat or negative, benefits are not reduced; they simply remain unchanged.
Social Security’s 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Forecast
The official announcement for the 2026 COLA, which will govern payments starting in January 2026, is made by the SSA in October 2025. This timing allows for the incorporation of the final September CPI-W data. Current analysis, based on available inflation data from July and August 2025, allows independent organizations to generate informed projections.
The previous year’s adjustment, the 2025 COLA, was set at 2.5%, impacting over 72.5 million recipients across the United States.
Presently, the consensus among leading analysts, including those at The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), points to a 2026 COLA of approximately 2.7%. This figure has seen a minor upward revision from earlier summer estimates and would sit above the 2025 adjustment but below the more substantial 3.2% increase seen in 2024.
Other respected institutions, such as AARP, suggest a potential range of 2.4% to 2.8%, acknowledging that the final calculation hinges on the September inflation report. The automatic application of this increase to all beneficiaries’ payments is a standard administrative procedure that does not require any action from individuals.
Is the COLA appropriate for Social Security benefits?
However, a discussion exists around the adequacy of the CPI-W in capturing the true inflation experienced by seniors, who allocate a larger portion of their budget to healthcare and housing—categories that often outpace general inflation.
Advocacy groups consequently argue that a 2.7% increase may still fail to cover the actual rise in living costs for retirees, prompting calls for adopting a different index, such as the CPI-E (for the elderly), though no such change is anticipated for 2026.
How much could the benefits increase in 2026
Should the 2.7% projection hold, the financial impact on beneficiaries can be estimated using current average benefit figures. For retired workers, the average monthly benefit of $2,006 would see an increase of about $54, resulting in a new estimated monthly amount of $2,060.
This translates to an annual increase of roughly $648. For disabled workers receiving SSDI, the average payment of $1,537 would rise by approximately $41 per month to $1,578, adding about $492 over the course of a year.
Survivor benefits vary by category. For an elderly widow or widower without children, an estimated average benefit of $1,850 would increase by $50 monthly to $1,900. For mothers or fathers with eligible children, an estimated average of $1,200 would see a $32 monthly increase to $1,232.
For those receiving SSI, the maximum federal payment for an individual ($967) would rise by $26 to $993, while the maximum for a couple ($1,450) would increase by $39 to $1,489. The additional payment for an essential person would see a $13 monthly increase from $484 to $497.
Please remember that these are estimates, and this text is just for informational purposes. The final COLA could shift slightly based on the last piece of economic data.