The increase in the United States’ Social Security benefits, called the cost of living adjustment (COLA) is an important guarantee for millions of retirees and disabled people to preserve their purchasing power in the face of inflation.
Each year, this COLA adjustment is made using the Consumer Price Index known as CPI-W, and although the official announcement for 2026 has been affected by recent government shutdowns, current estimates give a clear idea of what could be.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is calling some staff members back to work to prepare its closely watched inflation gauge, the CPI-W report, despite the government shutdown, a Trump administration official told to US media.
The COLA increase to keep Social Security recipients afloat
As the US economy faces moderate inflationary pressures and concerns about an aging population, understanding these estimates is key to planning for retirement without falling into unrealistic expectations.
Through October 2025, average monthly payments for retired workers are projected to be around $2,008 a figure that reflects the 2.5% adjustment applied at the start of the year and has helped stabilize the income of more than 72 million beneficiaries.
This average, based on recent data from the Social Security Administration (SSA), illustrates the reality for many households dependent on these funds a small amount that covers basic needs but often requires supplements such as personal savings or extra pensions.
The maximum retirement benefits valid in October
On the other hand, current maximum payments reach $5,108 per month for those claiming benefits at age 70, assuming maximum contributions over a 35-year career. This higher cap, which contrasts with the average, highlights the disparities in the system, where only a minority of qualified workers manage to maximize their contributions over decades.
Projections for the 2026 COLA, based on independent analyses, point to a moderate increase that could range between 2.7% and 2.8%.
Organizations such as The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group for seniors, have consistently estimated a 2.7% increase, which would reflect controlled inflation in recent months, with an emphasis on everyday expenses such as food and housing.
Similarly, independent expert analyst Mary Johnson, an expert on Social Security and Medicare, suggests a 2.8% increase, considering seasonal trends in the September CPI-W.
Trump and the government shutdown: delays in the horizon
These figures, while preliminary, come from data accumulated through August 2025 and could be adjusted once the federal government resolves delays in releasing the September inflation report, which was delayed by a partial shutdown.
What’s interesting about these projections is how they line up with the broader economic picture. Unlike the steeper increases seen in 2023 and 2024, which exceeded 3%, the scenario for 2026 appears more tempered, influenced by a Federal Reserve that has moderated interest rates and inflation that has slowed from its post pandemic peaks.
However, factors such as volatile energy prices and medical costs could tip the balance upward if winter brings unexpected weather or geopolitical tensions. Experts agree that a COLA in this range would maintain the balance between protection against the erosion of the value of money and the sustainability of the Social Security fund, which faces demographic challenges with an expanding retirement population.
New date set for the COLA announcement
The CPI report, which is correctly delayed from October 15th to October 24th due to the federal shutdown, will be released just in time to meet the deadline for adjusting Social Security payments for next year.
“This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits,” the BLS said in a statement on its website Friday, adding that no other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the government reopens.